☕ US Treasuries at 5%

Thursday: Data Dive

What are they?

• US Treasuries are loans (bonds) from the US Government.

• A yield curve is a comparison of yields from different maturity bonds.

• Higher long-term yields signify stress on overall market and economic conditions

Where we are right now

The US 30 Year treasury is yielding 5%, suggesting oncoming economic hardships:

Here is a 30 year history of the 30Y US treasuries with recessions:

The 5% yield signals stress, but not a break. It depends on whether companies continue to grow earnings or not. If companies pull back on earnings, it could lead to a market hiccup.

Again, nobody knows nothing.

So What?

• Watch for corporate pullback. Earnings decline across industries.

• Watch for increasing unemployment.