☕ The hard-easy effect
Friday: Mental Model / Big Idea
The "hard-easy effect" is a cognitive bias where individuals overestimate their chances of success on difficult tasks and underestimate them on easy tasks. This tendency is more pronounced when judging the probability of achieving a target that is not easily achievable.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
Overconfidence on difficult tasks:
People tend to be overly confident in their ability to complete complex or challenging tasks, often assuming they have a higher chance of success than they actually do.
Underconfidence on easy tasks:
Conversely, individuals often underestimate their chances of success on tasks that appear easy, feeling less confident than they should.
Basis of the bias:
This bias arises from the mismatch between the perceived difficulty of a task and the actual probability of achieving the desired outcome.
Impact on decision-making:
The hard-easy effect can influence decision-making, potentially leading to overestimation of the likelihood of success in risky ventures or underestimation of the effort required for seemingly straightforward tasks.
Examples:
An individual might overestimate their ability to answer a difficult multiple-choice question correctly, while simultaneously feeling underconfident about their ability to answer a simple math problem.
A runner might overestimate their ability to complete a long, challenging run, while feeling less confident about a short, easy jog.
Underlying mechanisms:
The hard-easy effect is often attributed to a combination of factors, including the way we process information, the role of social comparison, and our tendency to rely on mental shortcuts.
That’s it for today. Have a great Friday.
Mike